- Japan Flash Manufacturing PMI (JPY, GMT 01:30) – The June and May numbers missed expectations at 51.5 and 52.5 respectively and have been trending lower from the April peak at 53.3 as Japanese manufacturing continues to suffer from virus concerns in Asia.
- German ifo Business Climate (EUR, GMT 08:00) – The July number of this widely respected measure of German economic health should continue the last six-month upward trend. The June number beat expectations at 101.8, up from 99.2 in May and 96.8 in May.
- US New Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) – More evidence of the “hot” and some say “overheating” US housing market could show new homes sales rising to 800,000. May and June missed expectations, but anything over 550,000 shows a very healthy new homes market. April’s 1 million plus number first spiked concerns of a new US housing bubble.
Tuesday – 27 July 2021
- US Durable & Nondefense Capital Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – The headline Durable goods orders number is expected to dip to 2.1% in June from 2.3% in May. The more important CORE number is expected to show a healthy rise to 0.8% from 0.3% last time. The nondefense orders are also expected to show a rise to 0.6% from 0.1%.
- US CB Consumer Confidence (CNY, GMT 14:00) – The Conference board data is notoriously volatile but last months 127.3 showed continued positive expectations in US households for the economic outlook over the coming months.
Wednesday – 28 July 2021
- AUD CPI Data (GMT 01:30) Australian Inflation and the trimmed mean CPI data are both expected to rise, to 1.4% from 1.1% and 0.5% from 0.3% respectively, as the spectre of rising prices swirls around the globe. Central banks remain fixed in their view that it is only transitory and this (in the Australian case) could mark a peak or at least a watershed.
- CAD CPI Data (GMT 01:30) In Canada the Inflation number is expected to dip to 3.5% from 3.6% and the more important Core number dipping to 2.4% from 2.8%. The BOC was the first to move on cutting QE and reduced again in this month.
- FOMC Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (USD, GMT 18:00 & 18:30) The event of the month – the FED tilt Hawkish last month has seen the USD rally and underpinned equity and oil markets. Wednesday should see some more “meat on the bones” on the “talking about tapering” agenda, ahead of a likely announcement in September and more hints at the Jackson Hole meetings in August. Chair Powell and his key vice Chairs remain cautious and on the Dovish side of the discussions.
Thursday – 29 July 2021
- German HICP (EUR, GMT 12:00) – German Inflation (along with unemployment data) is expected to tick higher, last month the 0.4% reading was a tick lower than expected and three ticks below the 0.7% in March and February. HICP is expected at 0.5%.
- US Advanced GDP Q2 (USD, GMT 12:30) Following the FED on Wednesday this is the most eagerly awaited data of the week. It is expected that the strong Q1 6.4% number will be significantly beaten with Q2 showing a robust 7.9% growth.
Friday – 23 July 2021
- German GDP Q2 (EUR, GMT 08:00) – The preliminary reading of German GDP was a disappointing -1.8% in Q1, Q2 is likely to show an improvement but will this key EU countries economy show strong growth April-June as lockdowns eased and then were re-implemented as the delta variant spread? The market is expecting a weak -1.5%.
- Canadian GDP (M/M) (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Last month the Canadian economy shrunk by -0.3% GDP, better than expected but still negative, May was the current highpoint of the cycle at +1.1%. A breach of 0.0 would be seen as positive.
- US Core PCE Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) –The FOMC’s preferred measure of the state of price inflation in the US economy, rose by 0.5% last month, missing expectations and down from the 0.7% high in May, further supporting the FED’s “transitory” mantra. A key data point watch with great anticipation as the month draws to a close.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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