- US October retail sales control group -0.1% vs +0.3% expected
- US November Empire Fed manufacturing survey +31.2 vs -0.7 expected
- US October industrial production -0.3% vs -0.3% expected
- US September business inventories +0.1% vs +0.2% expected
- US October import prices YoY 0.8% vs -0.1% prior
- Canada Sept wholesale sales +0.8% vs +0.9% expected
- Fed’s Barkin: I always have expected core PCE to stay in the “high twos”
- Fed’s Goolsbee: Unless conditions change, I feel good about 12-18 month path to neutral
- Fed’s Goolsbee says personally comfortable not ‘charging’ towards neutral
- Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow 2.5%
- BOC senior loan officer survey: 1.71% vs 6.85% prior
- Fed’s Collins: Won’t take a December easing off the table, doesn’t see big urgency
- ECB’s Cipollone: We can and should reduce the level of monetary policy restriction
- Putin told Scholz peace agreement should proceed from new territorial realities
Markets:
- Gold down $4 to $2562
- US 10-year yeilds up 2 bps to 4.44%
- WTI crude oil down $1.71 to $66.99
- S&P 500 down 1.3%
- JPY leads, GBP lags
There wasn’t a tidy narrative on Friday as trading started out with a ‘sell everything’ mode before bonds made something of a comeback. Still, it was a tough one for stocks, bonds and equities. In that environment you would expect to see US dollar strength but that wasn’t the case as the euro and Australian dollars held steady.
The retail sales report was the main event of the day ahead it was better than the headline looked due to a strong September revision. However others would argue that was negated by a negative August revision. Still, there isn’t much of a debate going on about the US consumer right now with most arguing that spending will be healthy and could get a post-election bump.
The big move in FX was in USD/JPY. There was some intervention talk earlier and stronger verbal intervention. I’m dubious that was the cause but there was some real selling as about half of the week gain was wiped out in a 200 pip fall. The Fed has turned less dovish, which should help but the bond market could be sniffing some economic weakness out or there could be angst about tariffs and deficits.
Cable fell for the sixth day, which if fine with me because I’ll be in London next week. The pair broke the August low and continued down to 1.2600, which is flirting with the June low in what’s been a rough ride.
The loonie has been struggling alongside the pound and fell to a fresh four-year low, which meant a rise in USD/CAD to 1.4105 at today’s peak. The move was helped along by another decline in oil prices.
There is brewing concern about China and equities there were the global laggards this week. That’s a problem for the antipodeans but on Friday they shook off the worries to finish flat.
Have a great weekend and if you’re in London, I’ll be at FMAS 2024 next week.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
