Ever since the strong CPI report the forecasts for a May interest rate hike from the RBA have increased.
After yesterday’s surging inflation data analysts bring forward RBA rate hike expectations
the RBA meet next week, May 3
A hike of 15bps has been priced in. Of Australia’s ‘big four’ banks (ANZ, CBA, NAB, Westpac), 3 (ANZ, NAB, Westpac) are tipping a hike next week.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) are not changing their June forecast though. Says it’ll be a line ball call but assess a probability of 6/10 for an hold decision (3/10 for a hike of 15bps and 1/10 long shot for a 40bp hike)
CBA cite RBA repeated comments on waiting for rising wages data to confirm more persistent inflation:
wages data is due on May 18, and average earnings is due on June 1
and also RBA ‘patience’; that is the RBA have said they are tolerant of CPI above the upper level of the band (the band for underlying inflation is 2 to 3% over time) for a period of time. Liftoff, like winter, is coming.
