Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) –A 200k November nonfarm payroll increase is anticipated, after gains of 261k in October, 315k in September, and 292k in August. Payroll growth should slow into the winter as mortgage rates rise and recession fears mount. A climb in initial and continuing claims since September implies some downside payroll risk. The jobless rate is seen to tick up to 3.8% from 3.7% in October and a 3.5% cycle-low in September. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.1% after a 0.2% October rise, while the workweek holds at 34.5 for a sixth month. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.3% after a 0.4% gain in October, while the y/y wage gain should be steady at 4.7%. In the last expansion, we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic-boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020. The ensuing strength in wage gains has allowed continued robust y/y increases in 2022, though the return of low-paid workers to the workforce is likely restraining wage increases.
Employment data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada’s employment rose by only 6K in November following the 108.3K rise in October. The unemployment rate should be unchanged at 5.2% m/m.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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