- PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The People’s Bank of China in this meeting should provide guidances on the next move in Loan Prime Rates. It is expected to continue to maintain flexibility in the exchange rate, stabilize market expectations, and keep the yuan basically stable at reasonable and balanced levels.
Tuesday – 22 December 2020
- Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The preliminary Retail sales are seen diving at -0.6% m/m in November from 1.4% last month.
- Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 07:00) – Gross Domestic Product is seen stable at 15.5% q/q growth in Q3 and -9.6% y/y. Like in the Eurozone, production numbers expected to remain pretty good, even though the rebound started to slow down due to the November lockdowns.
- Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 13:30) – A slight boost is seen in Q3 GDP growth to 33.2% from 33.1%. The revised Q3 GDP figures should still show a quarter with dramatic rebounds for residential investment and equipment spending to notably robust levels, and out-sized Q2-Q3 gyration in both exports and imports that left big Q3 gains, and hefty recoveries in consumer spending. Government spending received an initial lift in Q2 from spending with the CARES Act, though most of this spending was transfer payments that don’t enter government purchases, and we saw a Q3 pull-back in government spending that should extend through Q4 and into 2021.
Wednesday – 23 December 2020
- Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The preliminary trade deficit of Australia is currently at $7,456M.
- Personal Spending and Consumption (USD, GMT 13:30) – Personal consumption is expected to show a -0.2% headline decline in November after a -0.7% drop in October. The projected November income decline reflects a 0.6% rise in compensation, but an ongoing unwind of jobless benefits and weakness in rental and proprietor’s income, as the April income boost from the CARES Act continues to unwind.
- Michigan Index (USD, GMT 15:00) – US consumer sentiment climbed 4.5 points to 81.4 in the preliminary December reading. That’s much better than expected but the move back up to the 89.1 level from March has been restrained by various headwinds, with the spike in the virus and renewed lockdowns the current difficulty.
Thursday – 24 December 2020
- Christmas Eve – Early close for Major Markets
- Durable Goods and Defence orders (USD, GMT 13:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to rise 1.4% in November with a 2.9% climb in transportation orders, after a 1.4% headline orders rise in October that included a 1.4% transportation orders gain. The durable orders rise ex-transportation is pegged at 0.7%, after a 1.3% September rise. A defense orders gain is pegged at 4.2%, following a 24.0% October bounce. Boeing orders rose to 27 planes in November after two months at zero. The vehicle assembly rate is seen ticking up to 10.7 mln in November from 10.6 mln in October, versus a 0.1 mln trough in April. Durable shipments should be flat, and inventories should be 0.3%.
- Tokyo CPI and unemployment rate (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected stable presenting a decline at -0.7% y/y in December ex Fresh Food. The unemployment rate is also stable at 3.1% for November.
Friday – 25 December 2020
- Christmas Day – Nearly all major Markets closed
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
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