- ISM Services PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index should rise to 57.5 from 55.3 in February, versus a 17-month high of 58.1 in July, an 11-year low of 41.8 in April, a 13-year high of 61.2 in September of 2018, and an all-time low of 37.8 in November of 2008. Producer sentiment has remained firm into 2021 as businesses scramble to rebuild inventories, with an added lift into March from expanding vaccine availability and two rounds of stimulus distributions in January and March.
Tuesday – 06 April 2021
- RBA Rate Statement & Interest Rate (AUD, GMT 04:30) – After unexpectedly extending its QE program following its February board meeting. Governor Lowe warned, however, that the expected recovery is likely to “remain bumpy and uneven” and “remains dependent on the health situation and on significant fiscal and monetary support”. The central scenario is for the Australian economy to expand 3 1/2% this year and “return to its end-2019 level by the middle of this year”. In the meantime the Fed, ECB and RBA in pushing back against market bets that accommodation will need to be trimmed soon.
Wednesday – 07 April 2021
- Markit PMI Composite (EUR, GMT 07:55-08:00) – Final composite PMI readings for Germany and the Eurozone for March already look outdated considering that PMI readings confirmed that the jump in the ZEW earlier in March was not just a reflection of buoyant investor confidence, but actually a reflected improvement at the company level in Germany. At the same time, the PMI in particular flagged supply chain shortages and a marked rise in costs and subsequently prices charged. However, considering the latest virus developments that brought fresh lockdowns the composite PMI readings for the Eurozone remain under contraction.
- Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country. Canada’s July Ivey PMI is expected to improve further as the latest data are supportive of the ultra-accommodative central bank story.
- FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The report should reiterate that the Fed’s aim is to anchor inflation expectations around 2%, and the new posture makes policy much less pre-emptive about future inflation — as Kaplan stated “we are more willing to be aggressive and less preemptive.” On fiscal policy, they probably repeat that infrastructure spending is an investment “worth making.”
Thursday – 08 April 2021
- ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11:30) – The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. The ECB is expected to remain dovish, with the latest comments from officials clearly highlighting the commitment to the extended monthly purchase volume and signal that ECB may back calls for the program to become part of the ECB’s regular toolkit.
- Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 23:30) – The US initial jobless claims rose 61k to 719k in the week ended March 27. That follows the -107k plunge to 658k (was 684k) in the March 20 week which was the lowest since the pandemic shut the economy a year ago. The report was on the disappointing side relative to the huge improvement in the labor market revealed in Friday’s jobs report.
- Fed Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 16:00)
Friday – 09 April 2021
- Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – Chinese inflation is expected to remain unchanged in March at 0.6% m/m from 1.0% last month, but the headline to decline to -0.4% y/y.
- Producer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – Chinese PPI is expected to grow in March at 1.5% m/m falling from 1.7% last month.
- Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – We expect a 0.5% March PPI headline rise with a 0.2% core price gain, following respective gains of 0.5% and 0.2% in February and a huge 1.3% and 1.2% in January. As expected readings would result in a rise for the y/y headline PPI metric to 3.9% from 2.8% in February.
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