- Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Retail Sales should contract to -0.5% m/m in November, leaving the headline at 5.6% y/y. The three months trend rate turned negative however, and with virus restrictions being tightened again in parts of the Eurozone, the risk of further pressure on retailers is rising.
- Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for a 440,000 in December nonfarm payroll, after gains of 210k in November. The jobless rate should hold steady at 4.2% for a second month, down from 4.6% in October. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.4%, after gains of 0.3% in November and 0.4% in October, while the y/y wage gain should ease to 4.2% from 4.8% due to a hard comparison. In the last expansion we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains, in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020, and the ensuing strength in wage gains that has allowed continued robust y/y increases. We expect a robust payroll trajectory into the end of 2021 thanks to the last two stimulus packages and vaccines.
- Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada’s employment rose 153.7k in November, much better than expected, following the 31.2k rise in October. The jobless rate dove to 6.0% from 6.7%.
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