Events to Look Out for Next Week

  • Trade Balance (CNY, GMT 03:00– December’s Trade Balance for exports and imports are likely to show a rise at 73.40 bln, in contrast with a pull back in exports and imports headlines which are expected to deduct to 20.0% y/y and 25.9% y/y respectively.
  • Retail Sales (USD, GMT 13:30) – December’s Retail sales are anticipated at -0.4% declines for both the headline and ex-auto measure, after November increases of 0.3% for both. The headline should be restrained by both a pull-ahead of holiday sales into early-Q4 due to feared supply shortages, and a headwind to holiday activity from the Omicron variant. We expect a continued unwind of the lift from Q1 stimulus, and restraint from the end of extended jobless benefits that have capped Q4 disposable income growth.
  • Import and Export prices Index (USD, GMT 13:30) –  Expected to rise 0.3% and 0.4% respectively in December. We’ve more generally seen a wide array of price gains attributable to global capacity constraints and supply chain disruptions. A downtrend in the value of the US Dollar into 2021 aggravated the outsized trade price climb since December of 2020, though dollar gains since May of 2021 have capped price increases into Q4.
  • Michigan Index (USD, GMT 15:00) – The preliminary Michigan sentiment report is expected to reveal a January headline drop to 70.0 from 70.6 in December, leaving the measure back below the prior 10-year low of 70.3 in August, and further below the pandemic-bottom of 71.8 in April of 2020. Confidence has posted a big pull-back since midyear as the updraft with stimulus and vaccines is fading alongside soaring prices that are crushing purchasing powe

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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