Events to Look Out for Next Week

• Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for a 380,000 February nonfarm payroll increase, after gains of 467k in January, 510k in December, and 647k in November. Diminished payroll restraints are anticipated from the Omicron wave that allows a boost for the workweek and hours-worked, but a diminished hourly earnings gain. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.4%, after gains of 0.7% in January and 0.5% in December, while the jobless rate is expected to dip to 3.9% from 4.0% in January. In the last expansion we saw a 3.5% peak for y/y wage gains, in both February and July of 2019, before the pandemic boost to an 8.0% peak in April of 2020, and the ensuing strength in wage gains that has allowed continued robust y/y increases into 2022.

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Andria Pichidi

Market Analyst

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