- US April non-farm payrolls +139K vs +130K expected
- Canada May employment change +8.8k vs -12.5k expected
- Top US and China trade officials will meet Monday in London
- China issues rare earth licenses to suppliers of top 3 US automakers
- Walmart says the consumer is doing fine
- Fed’s Harker is doing the farewell rounds: Says FOMC can cut later in the year
- What Lululemon said about the strength of the consumer in the US, Canada and China
- White House: No plan for Trump call with Musk
Markets:
- Gold down $40 to $3313
- US 10-year yields up 11 bps to 4.50%
- WTI crude oil up $1.28 to $64.65
- S&P 500 up 1.1%
- USD leads, JPY lags
The non-farm payrolls numbers were largely in-line with expectations but when you factor in revisions and some quirks, it was probably a shade negative. But what the price action revealed was a market that was anxiously waiting to spring; whether that was post-ADP angst or just buyers waiting for a risk event to pass is tough to say. The newsflow on US-China remains positive so I assume that’s the major driver.
In any case, it was a strong day for the US dollar and stocks. The fall in gold prices also indicates a backing off on trade tensions. Rising yields might also indicate that Elon’s budget suicide mission didn’t move the needle on the likelihood the budget bill will pass.
That’s not to say that the jobs report didn’t shift views. The pricing on April 2026 Fed funds fell 10 bps to 70 bps in the aftermath. That helped to lend a strong bid in the dollar, particularly in USD/JPY, which ended a see-saw week at close to its best levels. The dollar moves were smaller elsewhere but it added 25-35 pips on most fronts.
Have a great weekend.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
