FX Update October 2 – Ahead of NFP


The Yen has rallied versus other currencies amid a pronounced risk-off positioning theme in global markets on news that President Trump, along with the First Lady and White House public relations counsellor, have tested positive for Covid.

S&P 500 E-minis are 1.4% lower, and Asian & European stock markets have also taken a hit. USDJPY dove by over 0.5% in pegging a low at 104.94. EURJPY fell to a four-day low and the high beta AUDJPY cross plummeted by over 1% to two-day lows under 75.00.


Following the positive Covid test news, Trump’s age and health is an added item on a growing worry list. Trump is now self-isolating, and at the least his pre-election campaigning will be greatly curtailed. The next Presidential debate is scheduled for October 15. CDC data shows a 94.6% survival rate for people over 70, though presumably this is better for people in their early-to-mid 70s, like Trump, as the data will be skewed by people over 80, who are at greater risk.

public relations

Among other currencies, EURUSD dipped to a two-day low at 1.1694 before rebounding quite sharply to a 1.1738 peak. Cable saw a similar price action, bouncing out of a low at 1.2838 and rallying 100+ pips to 1.2952 following news of a meeting between UK PM Johnson and European Commission President Von der Leyen scheduled for tomorrow. AUDUSD posted a two-day low at 0.7132. USDCAD lifted back above 1.3300 and matched yesterday’s peak at 1.3329.

public relations counsellor

In Japan, August unemployment came in at 3.0%, matching expectations and having no impact. Chinese and South Korean markets remained closed. Ahead, the flash September estimate of Eurozone CPI is up, where we expect a -0.4% y/y outcome after -0.2% y/y in the prior month. In the US, the September payrolls report is up. We expect it to show a continued rebound as workers have returned to work, but there will still be a net drop in employment for 2020 overall. Political negotiations on a new fiscal relief package in the US remain ongoing. The mood music has improved somewhat, with some Republicans eager to strike a deal with the Democrats before the November 3 elections. The Covid situation in Europe remains a concern, with the new case rate high and new restrictions in one form or another being introduced seemingly daily in many countries.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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