Market Update – October 28 – USD Mixed, Stocks Down, Yield Curve Flattens, Oil tanks

  • USD (USDIndex 93.82) V. choppy session as Yield spreads narrowed to March 2020 lows (2&5yr higher, 10&30yr lower) – catalysts Inflation worries, surprise ending of QE, earlier rates hikes suggested from BOC. Stocks down, Oil sank. Durable Goods missed but not as bad as expected, Trade balance at record $96.3 bn.
  • US Yields (10yr crashed into close at 1.529) lifted in Asian now 1.57%.
  • Equities lower – USA500 -23 (-0.51%) at 4551 (DOW -0.75%) – Big movers – MSFT +4.21%, GOOGL + 4.96%, EXXON -2.6%, JPM -2.08% – USA500.F back to 4545. Asian equities weaker.
  • USOil down on Inventories more than a double build – at 4.3m vs 2.0m & draw down last week of 400k barrels. Low $79.39 earlier from $83.70 on Monday.
  • Gold recovers from $1783 low yesterday to breach $1800 now.
  • FX markets EURUSD 1.1600, Cable 1.3750, USDJPY now 113.70

ECB Preview: The central bank is widely expected to keep policy settings on hold today, after Lagarde signalled last month that the important decisions on the future of PEPP and possible changes to the older APP programmes won’t be taken until December. Still, markets will be hoping for some signals on the flavour of the discussion at the presser. The departure (by year end) of Bundesbank President Weidmann – the most hawkish and traditional central banker at the council – fueled speculation of a further strengthening of the older APP asset purchase programs. The ECB’s mandate will still have to be respected, but by keeping some flexibility for emergency situations the ECB could still send a dovish signal, even if it confirms in December that PEPP will end on time in March next year – as is widely expected.

European Open The December 10-year Bund future is up 4 ticks, but the 30-year future is moving higher long Gilt futures are rallying, as markets turn pessimistic on the growth outlook. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are managing slight gains though in line with US futures.

Today – German Unemployment, EZ Consumer Confidence, US GDP, PCE Prices Advance, Weekly Claims, ECB Policy Announcement and Press Conference   Earnings- Airbus, AB InBev, Carlsberg, Evolution Gaming, Nokia, Saint Gobain; Shell; Amazon, Apple, Comcast, Merck, Caterpillar, Mastercard, Yum!, Shopify.


Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.37%)  Recovering from BOC shock yesterday down to 0.8820 back to 0.8880 now.  Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising,  RSI 55 & rising. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0062.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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