The bond market is quiet but it won’t stay that way
It’s been a quiet start to the year in the bond market but that won’t last. There are some major events coming that could spark a rethink about the current…
Read More »Who were the best 2025 forecasters? Here is who nailed (and who whiffed) the S&P 500 call
It’s easy to dunk on strategists. It’s a year-end tradition to pull up the forecast lists and laugh at how wrong the banks were. But they did pretty well this…
Read More »RBA’s Bullock: Discussed circumstances in which we might have to tighten
Did not explicitly consider case for a rate hike this meeting Discussed circumstances in which we might have to tighten Did discuss what they might have to do if rates…
Read More »Fed’s Waller: Labor market weak, having an effect on inflation
Inflation expectations anchored Should proceed based on what data is telling us Should look through tariff-driven inflation Excluding temporary inflation, PCE is running at 2.5% Biggest concern now is labor…
Read More »Late bids lift US stock markets to a fresh record high — 10x from the financial crisis
The dip was bought again. The S&P 500 is trading up 28 points, or 0.4%, to 6660, which is a new record high and also 10x from the financial crisis…
Read More »US August housing starts 1.307M vs 1.365M expected
Prior starts 1.428M Starts change -8.5% vs +5.2% prior US August building permits 1.312M vs 1.37M expected Permits change -3.7% vs -2.2% prior This is a poor reading and it…
Read More »August US non-farm payrolls +22K vs +75K expected
Non-Farm Payrolls +22K vs +75K expected Private Payrolls +38K vs +75K expected. Prior 83k Manufacturing Payrolls: -12K vs -5K expected. Prior -11k. Government Payrolls -16K vs -10K prior Unemployment Rate…
Read More »Nagel: ECB should neither plan nor rule out further cuts
The market is pricing in virtually no chance of a cut on July 24 but that rises to 42% for the September 11 meeting. and a cut is fully priced…
Read More »Fed’s Kugler says she views inflation as a bigger risk right now than employment
Inflation will be the first order effect, the other effects will be down the road Haven’t seen the full extent of impact of tariffs on prices This has a hawkish…
Read More »US April non-farm payrolls +177K vs +130K expected
Prior was +228K Two-month net revision: -58K versus -8K prior Unemployment rate: 4.2% versus 4.2% expected Prior unemployment rate: 4.1% Unrounded unemployment rate: 4.1872% versus 4.1519% prior Participation rate: 62.6%…
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