BOJ expected to pause rate hikes through September amid tariffs uncertainty – poll
59 of 62 economists (95%) see no change to interest rates in June meeting 39 of 58 economists (67%) see interest rates staying unchanged in Q3 (previously 36%) 30 of…
Read More »How did US tariffs impact China’s latest trade numbers?
In overall terms, the numbers here were much better than expected as China exports in particular held up. However, the devil is always in the details. China’s exports to the…
Read More »Strong dollar demand on the cards this month-end – Barclays
According to Barclays’ month-end FX rebalancing model, strong dollar buying is indicated against the rest of the major currencies bloc for April. This comes after Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement led…
Read More »FX option expiries for 25 April 10am New York cut
As we look to end the week, once again the impact of the option expiries should be relatively muted. There are some big ones but they aren’t sitting too close…
Read More »FX option expiries for 22 April 10am New York cut
At this point in time, the impact of the expiries is still very much undermined by other key drivers of trading sentiment. The broader market mood and risk flows will…
Read More »All eyes stay on the bond market in final trading day of the week
Despite a decent 30-year bond auction yesterday, yields are continuing to surge as broader market dislocations are persisting. 30-year yields in the US shot to a high of 4.95% earlier…
Read More »US futures hold up for now but tariffs threat remains
S&P 500 futures +1.4% Nasdaq futures +1.1% Dow futures +1.7% While there is a suggestion that market players are holding out some optimism for Trump to start making deals, the…
Read More »ECB’s Stournaras: Tariffs are a deflationary measure for the euro area
Tariffs are definitely a deflationary measure US policies are worse than expected, creating global policy uncertainty A notable adverse impact on growth could lead to activity being much weaker than…
Read More »US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 28 March -1.6% vs -2.0% prior
Prior -2.0% Market index 243.6 vs 247.5 prior Purchase index 158.2 vs 155.8 prior Refinance index 710.4 vs 752.4 prior 30-year mortgage rate 6.70% vs 6.71% prior Mortgage applications fell…
Read More »China urged to focus on bolstering domestic demand, especially consumption
Changes in global environment will be challenging for China The narrative is building on this front with many calling for Beijing to step up support, especially on services consumption. From…
Read More »