<p>Data is due at 1230 GMT:</p><ul><li>This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.</li><li>The times in the left-most column are GMT.</li><li>The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where is a number, is the consensus median expected.</li></ul><p>Earlier:</p><ul class="text-align-start vertical-align-baseline"><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/morgan-stanley-on-cpi-data-due-wednesday-10-august-could-be-catalyst-for-a-higher-usd-20220809/" target="_blank" data-article-link="true" class="article-link">Morgan Stanley on CPI data due Wednesday, 10 August – could be a catalyst for a higher USD</a></li><li><a href="https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-inflation-data-is-due-wednesday-10-august-2022-preview-20220809/" rel="follow" target="_self" class="vertical-align-baseline">US inflation data is due Wednesday, 10 August 2022 – preview</a></li></ul><p>This from Bank of Montreal:</p><ul><li>"A sufficiently strong CPI reading that keeps 75 bp on the table is our base case scenario and a consensus print would easily accomplish such a skew. The divergence between headline and core inflation that was exaggerated by accelerating energy and food costs has moderated and is expected to have done so further in July as gasoline prices retraced while core inflation persists. The yearly pace of headline is seen declining while the annual core figures are expected to gain from 5.9% to 6.1% — peak but directionally inconsistent with the Fed’s objective to be sure. Had all gone ‘according to plan’ at this point both measures of realized inflation would be trending lower and monetary policymakers would have cover to begin the process of refocusing investors on the ‘less volatile’ core series – ostensibly an opportunity for a downshift in the pace of hikes. Alas, the opposite will build the case for keeping with the 75 bp cadence in place for at least one more meeting. Powell’s calculations become more challenging if CPI posts a meaningful disappointment – unless it’s entirely a function of falling energy prices and core strength persists. In the scenario where the inflation measures universally disappoint, the Fed will then face the challenge of communicating to investors the degree of moderation that is required for a more material deceleration in the hiking cadence or even a pause. Needless to say, one weaker CPI report will leave the debate split between 75 bp and 50 bp – if the series for August extends the slowing, then the case for a half-point in September will quickly become far more persuasive. Two strong payrolls reports would clear that path for 75 bp, but only in the instance where a failure of inflation to moderate is the underlying driver."</li></ul><p>—-</p><p>ps. Has anyone noticed too that there has been no high inflation warning from the US administration this time around ahead of the data? </p>
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
