Fundamental
Overview
The US Dollar this week has
been erasing some of the losses experienced last week after the benign US PPI
and the Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement. There hasn’t been any notable
catalyst this week to support the greenback although some analysts pointed to less
dovish comments from Fed’s Waller yesterday.
On the JPY side, we got the
Japanese Q4 GDP this week and the data came in
much higher than expected which boosted the Yen as the market increased the
chances for a third rate hike by the end of the year. Today, BoJ’s Takata highlighted
upside risks to inflation calling for more rate hikes although his usual stance
is hawkish, so his comments weren’t surprising.
USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY continues to pull back from the lows reached after the benign
US PPI and Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement. From a risk management
perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline to position for a drop into
the 149.00 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 160.00 handle next.
USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor resistance zone around the 152.50 level.
If we get a pullback into it, we can expect the sellers to step in with a
defined risk above the resistance to position for a break below the 150.93
level. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase
the bullish bets into the trendline.
USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a pretty rangebound price action as we approach the resistance.
On an intraday basis, if the price breaks below the most recent higher low at
151.53, then we might see the sellers extending the drop into the 150.93 level
next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we have the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Tomorrow,
we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude with
the Japanese CPI and the US Flash PMIs.
Watch the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
